20130530

Something is strange. 19: the nuclear plant accident is all but forgotten. 2


rubble of Fukushima



Following from last time, we look at the background of promoting nuclear plants.

The technical and economical problem of the nuclear plant is already clear.
It is trustworthy that it is not what is exchanged for danger.
Most people refused even the rubble of Fukushima that our nation certified safe.

Last time, I brought up six reasons that the nuclear plant problem has been not stared.

Three reasons of the first half can be summarized in " ignoring."
Although this is general mind, its handling is not so easy.

The well similar example is smoking of tobacco.
It passed over five decades from recognizing as tobacco being harmful.
However, since there is violent advertisement of the tobacco industry and tobacco’s dependence property was high, it did not go to reduction easily.
But the prohibition of smoking became a global tide and has improved considerably.
The harmful campaign that led by the government of each nation was the most effective.

I think that the reduction is not expected unless a governmental posture is changed.



前回に続いて、原発が推進される背景を見ます。

原発の技術的、経済的な問題は、既に多くは決していると考えます。
危険と引き換えられるものでないことは確実です。
国が安全とした福島の瓦礫すら、ほとんどが拒否されたのですから。

前回、原発問題が注視されない理由を6項目挙げました。

前半の3項目は、一言で言えば「無視する」に尽きる。
これは一般的な心理ですが、そう簡単ではありません。

よく似た事例に、タバコの喫煙があります。
タバコは有害であると認知され初めて半世紀が経ちました。
しかしタバコ業界の猛烈な宣伝と無害キャンペーン、依存性が高いこともあってなかなか減少には向かいませんでした。
しかし禁煙は世界的な潮流となり、かなり改善されて来ました。
最も効果があったのは有害キャンペーンで、さらに各国政府が主導していることです。

つまり、政府と情報体制を変えない限り、縮小は期待出来ないと思います。


a question of an investigating committee 

< a question of an investigating committee >

Three reasons of the finish half can be summarized in " entrusting it to a person of power.”

This is a problem rooted in peculiar political culture of Japan.

Kurokawa chairman of the accident investigation committee said that a nuclear plant disaster originated in Japanese culture.

Going against the government policy by the regulation committee will be not possible like the past trial of nuclear plant probably.
Although the magnitude of nuclear plant-related economic is huge, Japan has experienced the shift of many industries in the past.
Rather, The problem was that the oligopoly and the adhesion expanded and the resisted force became strong.

“Since we elected current government in the election, must entrust it to them.”
It is no good.




後半の3項目は、「お上に任せる」となるでしょうか。
これは日本固有の政治文化に根ざした問題です。

事故調査委員会の黒川委員長が、原発事故は日本特有の文化に起因すると言われたのに、通じるものがあります。

規制委員会も、過去の原発裁判の如く、政府方針と逆に向かうことは不可能でしょう。
原発関連の経済規模は巨大ですが、過去、日本は多くの産業の交替を経験してきました。
むしろ問題は、寡占と癒着がここまで拡大してしまい、抵抗を強くしてしまったことです。

「選挙で選んだのだから現政権に任せるしかない」と言うことはないでしょう。


Tsuruga nuclear plant built on an active fault.

< Tsuruga nuclear plant built on an active fault. >

Current government exactly has adhered the nuclear plant industry, and has protected it.
In that sense, nuclear plant reduction by current government may be an empty dream.


今の原発産業に癒着し放任してきたのは現政権にほかなりません。
その意味では、現政権での原発縮小は夢物語かもしれません。








20130528

Something is strange. 18: the nuclear plant accident is all but forgotten. 1

 Transition of the advertising expenses of Tokyo Electric Power Company 

< a nuclear plant accident of Fukushima in Japan >

The issue is unanswered, and many nuclear plants become to start running.
Did the danger of the nuclear plant disappear? 
Even now the nuclear plant-related scandal continues.

What has occurred?  Let see it.

The big nuclear plant disaster occurred from the 1970s to the 80s in the world and Japan.
As a result, the Japanese opinion began to turn toward stopping nuclear plants.
However, the advertisement of mass media and our government was effective.
Until before the Tohoku earthquake disaster, national opinion became to promote the nuclear plant.
Then, the Kansai Electric Power came to depend on a nuclear power plant for the great portion of electric power.


問題はうやむやにされ、再稼働に向かっています。
原発の危険性は無くなったのでしょうか。
相も変わらず原発関連の不祥事が続いています。

何が起きているのでしょうか、それを見ます。

1970年代から80年代にかけて、世界、日本で大きな原発事故が起きました。
その結果、日本国民は原発停止へと舵を切り始めました。
しかしマスコミと政府の宣伝が効き、東北大震災が起きる直前まで原発推進一色になって行きました。
そうして、関電は電力の大半を原発に頼るようになった。


Transition of the advertising expenses of Tokyo Electric Power Company 

< Transition of the advertising expenses of Tokyo Electric Power Company >

However, this situation differs from before.

People knew the danger and the problem markedly compared with before.

l       The damage of Fukushima is immense, and continues for a long period of time.

l       The corruption of the nuclear plant-related organization continues even after the accident.

Ø         Disturbance of the nuclear plant accident investigation by the TEPC. 
Ø         A regulation committee leaked the contents of a report to the TEPC on ahead.
Ø         A series "nuclear fuel cycle abolition" of a journal was stopped by pressure of an electric power company.
Ø         A head director of Monju, Japan's fast breeder reactor, resigns for scandal hiding.
Ø         The counterargument of Kansai Electric Power Co. in a judging meeting about the active fault. Irrespective of incomplete investigation at the time of the construction.

l       The possibility of massive earthquakes or the eruption of volcanoes is increasing.


しかし今回は様子が異なります。

国民は危険性や問題点を以前に比べ格段に知った。

       福島の被害は莫大で長期に及ぶことを知った。
* 原発推進母体の腐敗や堕落は事故後も継続中です。
     東電の虚為説明「真っ暗で危険」として福島原発調査の妨害。
     委員会が報告書を事前に東電に流す。
     機関誌に「核燃料サイクル廃止」が連載されると、電力会社の圧力で中止。
     「もんじゅ」の不祥事隠しで理事長辞任。
     活断層判定会議での関電の反論(建設時の調査が充分でないのに)。

巨大地震や火山の噴火の可能性が高まっている。


the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake 

< the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake >

The danger of nuclear plant is much clear, so I wonder why it is promoted.

The following reasons are murmured in public.

A.      By forgetting many arduous past, Japanese people's recovery is early.
B.      People ignore it with mental bias. The fearful thing will not happen. We are safe if we are together all.”
C.      Daily food is more important than future safety.
D.      It is safe if we leave it to the regulation committee or the government.
E.      The abolition will be impossible, because the magnitude of nuclear plant-related economic was huge and had much power interests.
F.       Since we chose the campaign pledge " I regain Japan", must give up other policy.






These may not be true reasons that we can neglect the problem of nuclear plant.

Next time is followed.


これだけ原発の危険性が明らかになっているのに、なぜ推進なのでしょうか.

以下の理由が巷でつぶやかれています。

A. 日本人は物忘れが酷いが、立ち直りが早い長所がある。
B.     心理バイアスがかかり無視。「恐ろしいことは起こらない、皆と一緒であれば安心だ」
C.     いつ起きるかわからない先の事故より、今日の糧だ。
D.     規制委員会や政府に任せれば安心である。
E.     原発関連の経済規模は巨大で利権絡みもあり、廃止は無理だろう。
F.      ワンセットの公約「日本を取り戻す」を選んだのだから、他は諦めるしかない。


これらの理由で、原発問題を放置して良いのでしょうか。

次回に続きます。






20130526

the town of merchant and riverside: Oumi-hachiman 2  

a decoration of festival, Sagicho 

< a decoration of festival, Sagicho >

This time, I introduce festivals and souvenirs.
Here is a large shrine that has a history over 1000 years and has conducted two fire festivals.

今回は、祭りと土産を紹介します。
ここには千年の歴史を誇る神社があり、火祭りがある。


shrine’s gate, Himurei-Hachimannguu

< shrine’s gate, Himurei-Hachimannguu >

This shrine is located at the foot of Hachiman hill

この神社は八幡山の麓に有ります。


a front shrine and many flying carps  

< a front shrine and many flying carps  >

When I went into the precinct, many flying carps had been fluttering by breeze of May.
The main shrine is visible to the back.


境内に入ると、鯉のぼりが五月のそよ風になびいていました。
奥に本殿が見えます。


Sagicho festival and Hachimann festival 

< Sagicho festival and Hachimann festival >

A decoration of a dragon at infographic topping was used with a portable shrine(Mikoshi) like left photo in Sagicho festival.
Surprisingly the material of this dragon is many dry sardines( Tazukuri).

Right photo is burning torches of Hachimann festival.
Both festivals always finish with the fire festival at the last, and have been annually held in March and April, spring. 
The fire has what excites people.
The people wished good luck and charmed against bad luck.

巻頭写真の龍のダシは、左図のように左義長祭りの御輿に使われたものです。
この龍の材料は、なんと田作(乾燥鰯)なのです。
右の写真は八幡祭りで、松明(たいまつ)を燃やします。
両祭り共に、春の3月、4月に行われ、最後は火祭りで終わります。
火には興奮させる何かがあり、多くは招福除災を願ったようです。



a cake shop, club-Harie 


< a cake shop, club-Harie >

Taneya is an established shop of Japanese sweets, and Club-Harie is a cake shop.
These two shops were highly visible along the approach to the shrine.

神社の参道で、和菓子の老舗たねやと洋菓子店クラブハリエが目立ちました。


souvenirs

< souvenirs >

Although a funa-zushi is famous as a souvenir of Lake Biwa, I am not good at this fermented food.
The amber food that has boiled down small fish by soy sauce is delicious.


琵琶湖の土産と言えば鮒寿司が有名ですが、私はこの発酵食品は苦手です。
飴色した小魚の佃煮は美味しいかった



20130524

the town of merchant and riverside: Oumi-hachiman 1  


Hachiman canal 


< Hachiman canal >

In late April, I went to Oumi-hachiman in which there is the historical scenery of the town.
Here is a tourist spot that was known for the old houses of merchant and the canal.
That day was blessed with fine weather and a guide, and I had a good time.

4月下旬、歴史を感じさせる近江八幡に行きました。
ここは古い商家の街並みと掘りで知られた観光地です。
快晴とガイドに恵まれて、楽しい1日を過ごしました。




< Upper map: red mark is Oumi-hachiman, Shiga prefecture. Lower photo: I walked inside a red frame. >

At lower photo, a town spreads at the foot of Hachiman hill where is in center, and Lake Biwa is visible beyond it.
A green bent line in it is Hachiman canal, and the riverside area spreads to Lake Biwa.


下の写真で、中央の八幡山麓に町が広がり、奥に琵琶湖が見える。
折れ曲がった緑の線が八幡堀で、琵琶湖側には水郷が広がっています。


Shin-machi street 


< Shin-machi street >

There are the streets of the Oumi merchant who played an active part from Edo period to Meiji period.
Beyond 400 years, I felt the Oumi merchant's breath.

Hachiman hill is visible to the back.
Hidetugu Toyotomi, chief adviser to the Emperor, lived in the castle of the summit.
Beginning of this town is that he gathered merchants and protected.
These merchants have moved from the foot of Azuchi Castle that Nobunaga built about 5 km away from here.
This east shore of Lake Biwa had been important as a lodgement of east-west transportation by land and north-south water transport for many years.


江戸時代から明治時代に活躍した近江商人の商家が並ぶ。
400年の時を越えて、近江商人の息吹が感じられる。

奥に八幡山が見えるが、この山頂に関白豊臣秀次が居を構え、商人を集め庇護したのが、この町の興りです。
この商人達は5kmほど離れた信長の建てた安土城城下から移転して来た。
琵琶湖東岸のこの地は、古くから東西の陸運と南北の水運の要衝地だったのです。



Hachiman canal 


< Hachiman canal >

Those days, Hachiman canal which leads to Lake Biwa was crowded with water transport, and played a role of the moat of a castle.

当時、琵琶湖に通じる八幡堀は水運で賑わい、城の外堀の役割を担った。


 while shooting Hachiman canal. One scene of drama Mito Komon


< Left photo: while shooting Hachiman canal . Right photo: One scene of drama Mito Komon >


Hakuunnkann.  Vories, Mentholatum, Kwansei Gakuin University


< upper photo: Hakuunnkann. Lower phpto:  Vories, Mentholatum, Kwansei Gakuin University

At the early Meiji period, the Hakuunnkann is a school that Oumi merchants built and managed.

Vories who had been invited from the United States as an English teacher, played an active part in a Christianity evangelist, a philanthropist, an architect, and a business person.
He met MacArthur after the war and advised on Tenno system continuation of Japan.

Thus, the Oumi merchant's spirit has induced the further deployment.

Next time is followed.



明治初期、白雲館は近江商人の寄付で建てられ運営された学校です。

英語教師としてアメリカから招かれたヴォーリズは、キリスト教伝道者、慈善家、さらに建築家、製薬事業家として活躍することになりました。
彼は戦後マッカーサーと会い、日本の天皇制存続のアドバイスをしている。


このように近江商人の心意気が、更なる展開を生んだのです。

次回に続きます.
















20130522

Something is strange 17: rising share prices 2


 bubble economy burst

Why does the collapse of the bubble economy repeat?

Worryingly, In order to lower unemployment rate, the government is forced to take economic stimulus measure.
The government must depend on the monetary policy for it, because without expense.
And the control of overheating economy is difficult, and many of it becomes a bubble economy.

I do not know the economist or central bank governor who stopped ever a bubble economy burst.
But just maybe, thanks to be managed by the Governor of the Bank of Japan, the influence of the Lehman shock was slight.

The statement is dangerous even if there is a person who noticed it.
Moreover he will be abused.
Because, many people who are absorbed in the speculation and instigate it lose a large amount fund in one night.


なぜバブル崩壊の悪循環から抜け出せないのか?

厄介なのは、失業率を下げる為に政府は景気刺激策を取らざるを得ない。
それを出費の無い金融政策に頼ることになる。
かつ景気過熱の制御が難しく、多くはバブルになる。

かつてバブル崩壊を抑えた経済学者や中央銀行総裁を私は知らない。
ひょっとして日銀総裁が腐心したので、リーマンショックの影響が軽微で済んだのか。

実は気づく人はいても、発言は危険ですし、また非難されもするのです。
投機に熱狂し、煽る人々は巨額資金を一夜にして失うのですから。


How is this present condition in Japan?

This time, Abe Administration practiced the induction of inflation and the historical monetary relaxation.
The funds that the Bank of Japan scattered around are concentrating on equity market, and it is soaring.
Soon the first step was achieved and it became a memorable year.
It is so good that interest rates react instantly.

As of May 17, the aggregate market price of the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange was 442 trillion yen (1 dollar is 102 yen), and it in front of the bubble economy burst of 1989 was 590 trillion yen.
Do you think it is leeway or eve?




現状はどうか?

今回、安倍政権はインフレ誘導と歴史的な金融緩和に舵を切りました。
日銀がばらまく資金が株に集中し高騰している。
早速、第一段階が達成され、記念すべき年となりました。
金利が即反応するほどに好調です。

5月17日現在、東証一部の時価総額は442兆円(1ドルは102円)で、バブル崩壊直前の89年最高額は590兆円でした。
まだ余裕と見るか、直前と見るのか?


What is background of the rising share prices?

この株高の背景にあるもの・・?


Dow Jones Indexes, Nikkei Index, dollar-yen rate

< Dow Jones Indexes, Nikkei Index, dollar-yen rate  

The exchange rate reversed at the end of 2011, and cheap yen has started.
That was because the monetary crisis of EU had become calm.
The U.S. performed large monetary relaxation, and the rising share prices entered into 4th year.

2011年末に為替相場が反転し円安が始まっています。
EUが金融危機を乗り越えたのが切っ掛けでした。
米国は大幅な金融緩和を行い、株価上昇が4年目に入りました。


Transition of the aggregate market price of world’s main stock markets, from 2007 to 2013

< Transition of the aggregate market price of world’s main stock markets, from 2007 to 2013 >

The share prices in the world are obviously rising in concurrence with NY Dow.
A huge amount of speculative funds has been injected into stocks in the world, and Japan is only a mere part.


一目瞭然ですが、NYダウと軌を一にして世界の株価が上昇している。
世界の膨大な投機資金が株に注入され、日本はほんの一部にすぎない。


Two prominent economist's advice, brief 

From “ A short history of financial euphoria” by economist Galbraith
“ There is nothing comparable to the world of finance that disregards its history.”
Although some peoples are proudly happy with having found out the novel means of finance, after all, it is ….

From articles in New York Times by economist Krugman
"The EU crisis was the result of the housing bubble which the commercial bank in EU lent a hand in Southern Europe."
" Abenomics of Japan is effective as a business stimulating measure."
On May 10, “ Still, Japan and the U.S. are not a bubble.”

I wish that your property and the life are safe!


著名な経済学者の助言、要約

経済学者ガルブレイス著「バブルの物語」より
「金融の世界ぐらい歴史をひどく無視するものはない」
金融の手段について、一見新奇で大発見して得意になるが、結局は・・・」

経済学者クルーグマン、NYタイムズより
「今回のEU危機は、南欧に銀行が手を貸した住宅バブルのせいだ」
「アベノミックスは景気刺激策として有効だ」
510付「日米共にまだバブルではない」

皆さんの財産と生活が安全でありますように・・・