The election outcome of despair 3: very bad political culture 2

＜　December 16, 2012, principals of national election in Japan　＞

The regrettable point of this election didn't reflected public opinions. Furthermore, it is that the important point at issue has also disappeared.

The political party and the prime minister who lowered evaluation once came back. Again the same fault may occur.

This is a way repeated many times for the past seven years.

Six past prime ministers changed places about a year. But people did not have learning nothing from this occurrence.

Although the approval rating of their beginning was from 50 to 72%, it fell from 16 to 25% in each last stage.

This repeated replacement brought about the further disappointment and the discontent.

Peoples had stood on the verge of desperation and entrusted new expectation to the unknown political parties that came out suddenly.

今回の選挙で残念だったのは、民意が反映されず、大事な争点が無視されたことです。

一度評価を下げた政党や首相が返り咲き、同じ過ちが再発するかもしれない。

これは幾度も繰り返して来た道です、ここ７年の間。

歴代６人の首相は約１年毎に交代したが、国民はここから何も学ぶことは無かったのか。

彼らの最初の支持率は５０から７２％だったが、それぞれの末期には１６から２５％となった。

この繰り返される交代劇はさらなる失望と不満をもたらした。

そして絶望の淵に立ち、突然出てきた未知の党に、新たな期待を託した。

What occurred as a result?

Japanese people once abandoned the longtime rule of a government and second-generation politician. And the change of government occurred. Nevertheless, that also revived.

A problem is that people does not reflect on the situation and doesn't put a brake on the political decline.

＜　Transition of the number of votes obtained and legislative seats： look at the greatly changed seats between ruling and opposition parties(red and blue in the graph), and an influence of a fragmented political parties (green in it) ＞

The difference of the number of votes obtained between the two increased several times the difference of legislative seats. And it was repeated with large oscillation.

In the single-seat constituency system, it is surely becoming the sole winner.

This time, main political party fragmented, therefore invalid ballots largely generated, and the oscillation was further amplified.

その結果何が起きたのか。

長期政権と２世議員を見限り、政権交代を起こしたにも関わらず、また復活した。

問題は、国民に反省がなく政治凋落への歯止めがなかったことにある。

＜　得票数と議席数の推移　：　大きく振れる与野党議席と第三極の出現の問題が見える　＞

得票の少しの差が議席数の数倍の差になり、大きく振れながら繰り返されている。

小選挙区制では、どうしても一人勝ちとなる。

今回、小党が乱立したことにより、無効票が大量発生し、さらに振れが増幅された。

What is the problem?

l      Why do you allow the presence of many small parties? :  What can the lawmaker and minor parties that are inexperienced in practice and are not properly educated do?　 After all, many election pledges become waste paper at coalition.

l      Why do you make a fault of the single-seat constituency system stand out？: The maximum purpose of this system was to make the change of government possible. The longtime rule of a government induces the decomposition, the collusive relationship and the stagnation, and with this situation the opposition party also surely becomes powerless. The two-party system that this system induces is for producing the lawmaker who works hard and has a feeling of tension. But in presence of many small parties, it becomes an opposite effect.

何が問題なのか。

＊        なぜ小党乱立を許すのか　：　実践経験の無い、まともに教育されていない議員や小党に何が出来るのか。所詮、連立時にその公約は反古になる。

＊        なぜ小選挙区制の欠点を際立てせるのか　：　この制度の最大目的は政権交代を可能にすることにあった。どうしても長期政権は腐敗、癒着と停滞を生む、それに伴って野党も非力になる。この制度は、二大政党制によって緊張感と切磋琢磨しうる議員を生みだすことにある。それなのに小党乱立では今回にように逆効果になる。

Look beyond the surface.

l      Social unrest:  When Japanese people are exposed to the social unrest, the people tend to take emotional group behavior. Without the people have judged its utility calmly, jump at the new prime minister or a political party. While repeating this, I am most afraid is that what is chosen is lost.

＜　independents voting behavior：  political party to support by independents has reversed. hatching part in the graph shows independents.　＞

＜　Transition of party supporters and independents： the independents increased remarkably. Lower and dark blue part in it shows independents.　＞

l      Social recognition:  Japanese people have the generosity of accepting the recovery to failed man. However, people don't consider whether cause of the failure is essential or it was corrected. This is one of the causes by which people repeat easily the same failure.

＜　independents percentage according to age　：　There are more younger persons among independents. A blue line shows independents.　＞

＜　Transition of voting rate according to age　：　It of elderly people is in the higher rank and also going up. Lower and red line shows twenties, upper and brow line shows sixties.　＞

l      Political consciousness: The long-term declines in voting rate and the long-term increase in independents are remarkable. If people with low political awareness increase in number, political party to support will change a lot at each election, and it will increase many small parties. This induces a situation that the intention of the elderly people whose voting rate is high reflects in politics. Therefore the countryside has an advantage. After all, the younger age of urban areas becomes indifference about politics increasingly.

Next time, the problem of a political culture will be investigated again.

その深層を見る。

＊        社会不安　：　日本人は社会不安に苛まれると、感情的な集団行動に出る傾向が強い。効用を冷静に判断せず、取りあえず藁をも掴む気持ちで、新規首相や政党に飛び付く。最も恐れることは、これを繰り返す内に、選択するものがなくなることです。

＜　無党派層の投票行動　：　無党派層の支持政党が逆転している　＞

＜　政党支持層と無党派層の推移　：　無党派層の拡大が顕著である　＞

＊        社会認識　：　日本人は失敗した者に対して再起を認める度量がある。しかし一方で、人々はその失敗原因が本質的か、是正されたかを考察することをしない。これが同じ過ちを簡単に繰り返す原因の一つです。

＜　無党派層の年齢別割合　：　無党派層は若い者ほど多い　＞

＜　年齢別の投票率推移　：　高齢者６０歳代がトップでむしろ上昇している　＞

＊        政治意識　：　投票率の長期低下、無党派層の長期増加が顕著です。政治意識が低い人々が増加すると、選挙毎に大きく支持政党が変わり、また小党乱立に結びつく。これは投票率の高い地方の高齢者の意向が政治に反映する結果を生む。結局、都市部の若年層は、益々政治に無気力になっていく。

次回も政治文化の問題点を追及します。

Kobe in New Year

  

＜ Oriental Hotel and Port Tower in Kobe harbor ＞

On January 1, we went to the Kobe harbor cruise and a Chinatown (Nankin-Machi).

We were blessed with fine weather and sunlight was warmly pleasant.

We ate some Chinese food for supper.

1月1日、私は神戸港クルーズと南京町に行きました。

快晴に恵まれ、日差しは温かく気持ちが良かった。

夕食に中華料理を食べました。

 

＜　the streets in Kobe in the daytime　＞

 

＜　Kobe harbor、120-degree panorama、Mt. Rokko can be seen in the distance.　＞

 

＜　Kobe harbor, looked at the west, there are many cranes of shipyards. ＞

 

＜　Kobe harbor in the afternoon、The cruise ship that we rode is on the left.＞

 

＜　the streets in Kobe in the afternoon　＞

 

＜　a gate of Nankin-Machi　＞

 

＜　Nankin-Machi in the daytime　＞

 

＜　a store in Nankin-Machi　＞

 

＜　Nankin-Machi at night　＞　

 

＜　Chinese food, Chinese snacks and noodles　＞

We passed one wonderful day at the beginning of the year.

I pray that this year will be a good year for you also.

年の初めに素晴らしい1日を過ごしました。

今年も皆様にとって良い年でありますようにお祈りします。

　　

The election outcome of despair ２ ： financial collapse

 

＜　financial collapse of Greece　＞

Let's look at a financial collapse that may happen in the future.

Beginning from hyperinflation, it progresses the collapse of the 'bubble' economy, the debt default, the depression, and sometimes happens the war at worst.

There are some facts.

1.     National debt default occurred in 60 nations in the world after World War II.

Japan occurred a hyperinflation after World War II for excessive note issue.  

2.     A country does not disappear by the financial collapse. However, ...  

Hyperinflation and credit insecurity may induce depression and a country may resort to extreme measures in the confusion. It induced World War II.

 

3.     The European debt crisis started by financial collapse, and headed for convergence by unity of Europe.

By means of financing and unrestricted acquisition of the national bond by EU, the money market began to settle down from this September. However, each country must perform intense tight budget. An extreme depression, high rate of unemployment, their pension and income decrease, and high interest loan struck People.

将来起こり得る財政破綻を少し見てみましょう。

ハイパーインフレに始まり、バブル崩壊、債務不履行、恐慌、最悪は戦争へと進むかも。

幾つかの事実を指摘します。

1.     大戦後、国家の債務不履行（デフォルト）は世界６０ヵ国であった。

戦後日本は紙幣増発のためハイパーインフレを起こし、国民は限度額以上の預貯金を放棄させられた。

2.     財政破綻で国が消えてしまうことはない。しかし・・・。

ハイパーインフレや信用不安が恐慌を生み、その混乱の中で国が非常手段に訴えることがある。それが第二次世界大戦を生んだ。

3.     欧州債務危機は財政破綻で始まり、欧州の結束で収束に向かった。

EUによる融資、国債の無制限買い取りにより、この9月頃から金融市場は落ち着き始めた。しかし各国は超緊縮財政を行わなければならない。国民は極度の不景気、高失業率、年金や収入減、高利の借金に襲われることになった。

 

  

　＜　nominal growth rate and long-term interest rate : Red lines show US. Blue lines show Japan. Broken lines show long-term interest rate　＞

Does the financial collapse occur in Japan?

Conditions 1 :  If new national debt is not issued every year, moreover, for example, 7% of nominal economic growth rates (inclusive of inflation rate) and 4% of national bond interest rates will continue for 100 years or more, the accumulated debt of 1 quadrillion yen may become zero (dormer conditions).

Examination 1 :  Impossible, if it continues issuing a national debt to public investment of  minimum effect. Furthermore, 3% of the difference cannot be expected. Rather, this difference is reversal from 0 in many cases. In this difference is zero, 1 quadrillion yen will remain eternally（It changes with a payment method）That is, it is impossible.

Conditions 2 :  If the Bank of Japan underwrites a national debt without any restriction, it will become a high inflation rate and a nominal growth rate will become possible also over tens %.

Examination 2 :  However, national bonds interest rates also go up, and finally it becomes hyperinflation and the economic bubble burst (present Spain and Greece). In the past, there is not country that freely controlled inflation. In the end, more miserable situation is waiting.

Conditions 3 :  Since 96% of national debts are digested at home now, a run on a bank that people fasten their head is not started. There is not result in mass cancellation of national bonds.

Examination 3 :  In the near future, Japan will depend on overseas for underwriting of national debts, in order that savings ratio reduction and a weak yen. The bahts crisis (a drop in currency value) of Thailand was caused in order that a hedge fund obtain a large amount of profits. Like the collapse of the economic bubble burst repeated or debt crisis, own interests and strong avarice are moving economy and finance. There is no telling what happens.

日本で財政破綻が起きる可能性はあるのか？

条件１　：　毎年、新たな国債を発行せず、さらに、例えば名目経済成長率（インフレ率込み）７％、国債金利４％が百年続けば、累積債務１０００兆円が零になるかもしれない（ドーマー条件）。

検討１　：　効果の低い公共投資に赤字国債を発行し続ければ無理。さらに上記の差３％は期待出来ない。むしろその差は０から逆転することが多い。差が０で、永久に１０００兆円が残るだろう（返済方法で変わる）。つまり不可能である。　

条件２　：　日銀が国債を無制限に引き受けるなら、高インフレ率になり名目成長率は数十％も可能になる。

検討２　：　しかし金利も上昇し、最後にはハイパーインフレやバブル崩壊（現在のスペインやギリシャ）になる。過去、インフレを自在に制御出来た国はない。結局、より悲惨な状況が待っている。

条件３　：　現在、国債の９６％は国内で消化されているので、取付け騒ぎを起こすことはない。

検討３　：　貯蓄率減少と円安で国債引き受けを海外に頼ることになる。タイのバーツ危機（通貨安）は、ヘッジファンドが巨額の利益を得るために起こした。幾度も繰り返されるバブル崩壊や欧州債務危機に見られるように、私益と強欲が経済や金融を動かしている。何が起こるかわからない。

 

＜　European Union summit meeting　＞

Important in order to escape financial collapse

＊The issuance volume of national debts must be reduced gradually. :  Cuts in expenditures or a tax increase is required.

＊Continuous economic growth must be produced. :  We aim at the inflation rate 1-2%. We must reform the low-productivity industries that have kept by protection and regulation. In order that protected industries direct toward oversea market and grow up, trade must be expanded. we need the rise of birth rate、and practical use of female workers and overseas workers, thereby must increase the labor forces.

＊Throw away isolationism. :  Japan is the 2nd accumulated debt in the world. Nobody helps us?  We should aim at an economic community.

It is required for present Japan to bring up the political party that can implement the above-mentioned measure.

Next time, we look at the side of a Japanese political culture.

財政破綻を逃れるために大事なこと

＊国債発行額を徐々に減らす　：　歳出削減か増税が必要。

＊持続的な経済成長を生みだす : インフレ率１～２％を目指す。保護と規制で守られた低生産性の産業を改革する。保護産業を海外市場に向かわせ成長させるために貿易を拡大しなければなりません。女性労働力の活用、出生率のアップ、海外労働者の受け入れによって、労働人口を増やさなければならない。

＊孤立主義を捨てる　：　世界２位の債務残高で、いざというときに何処も助けてくれないでしょう。経済共同体を目指すべきです。

上記の対策を実行出来る政党を育てることが、今の日本には必要です。

次回は、日本の政治文化の側面を見て行きます。

The election outcome of despair １ ： Economic policy １

 

＜　a red line shows Japanese government debt　＞

This one-week was the days tormented by despair, anger, and a sense of powerlessness.

In the result of a national election of Japan, Japan will fall to an abyss.

Why is politics of Japan the worst?

The political party that stagnated Japanese economy for the past 30 years came back to political power.

And without reflecting on themselves, they are trying to take their conventional method and dangerous means.

Although I want my prediction deviate, i point out some dangerous factors.

この1週間は絶望、怒り、無力感に苛まれた日々でした。

日本の国政選挙の結果では、日本が奈落の底へと堕ちるだろう。

なぜ日本の政治はこうも劣悪なのか？　

数十年間、日本を停滞させた政党が政権に返り咲いた。

しかも彼らは反省するどころか、従来の方法と危険な手段を取ろうとしている。

私の予測が外れることを望むが、いくつかの危険要因を指摘しておきます。

Economic policy

Why do people allow that they have disregarded the economy?

The Liberal Democratic Party had performed public investment for 30 years. It was 7 to 12 trillion yen every year.

This had got to push up Japanese gross domestic product（GDP, about 450 trillion yen）from 8 to 13%. (As the marginal propensity to consume is 0.8.)

However, the economic growth rate fell from 4% to 0% in the meantime.

For this reason, 35 trillion yen national bond was floated every year. And 10 trillion yen of these was used to pay off debts.

This amount repaid will increase from now on. And if interest rates go up, the amount repaid will increase several times.

経済政策

なぜ国民は経済無視を許すのか？

自民党は毎年７から１２兆円の公共投資を３０年間行って来た。

これは日本のGDP４５０兆円を８～１３％押し上げるはずであった。(　限界消費性向＝０．８として)

しかしこの間、経済成長率は４％から０％へと低下していった。

この為に３５兆円の国債が毎年発行された。その内借金返済が１０兆円であった。

この返済額は今後増加し、金利が上昇すればその金額は数倍になる。

 

＜　a black line shows Japanese corporate investment　＞

A clear thing

Since the public investment has little effect, the outstanding obligation only increases.

Why does the party put power into this policy?  It will be only for protection of vested rights and interests.

Since the economic growth is indispensable to settle up the debts, we must carefully carry out the policy of reflation.

明確なこと

公共投資は効果が少ない為、債務残高は増加するだけである。

なぜ自民党がこの政策に力を入れるのか、それは既得権益擁護、票田確保の為だけだろう。

経済成長なくして債務解消は無いので、取り敢えずリフレ策を用心しながら実施すべきだろう。

 

＜　growth rate of the gross domestic product（GDP）in Japan ＞

What is likened to Japan?

The seriously injured diabetic is eating beef and a sweet cake heartily, carrying out insulin injection every day.

He is likened to Japan.

A serious illness of Japan is in the collusive relation between the public and private sectors, such as that nuclear power plant promotion and agricultural protection.

It is because there is much industry that abandoned growth by regulation or protection.

This seems to give the vested-rights-and-interests industry by immense government bond issuance (injection) (gluttony).

This is same as that people give assistance for the privileged business by immense government bond issuance.

We look at about economy next time also.

日本を例えるなら

重傷の糖尿病患者は毎日インスリン注射をしながら、牛肉や甘いケーキをたらふく食べている。

彼は日本に例えられる。

重病とは原発推進や農業保護に見られる官民の癒着構造にある。

それは規制や保護によって成長を放棄した産業が多いことによる。

これは国民が莫大な国債発行で特権ある業界を援助することと同じである。

次回も経済について見ます。