False rumor, prejudice, and blind spot 8 : Currency to dance 3

＜　great crisis   ＞

In 1929, the great crisis occurred in the United States.

The world economy got bad sharply with this crisis, fascism gained power from confusion of the society and the political situation, and it made World War II break out.

We see how American monetary policy affected this crisis outbreak.

The United States had good economy in 1920.

Economic strength grew up by the war boom of World War I (1914~1918), and consumer-goods booms, such as a car, happened.

In the second half, a business boom continued by a speculative boom.

The speculative boom began in a land-market boom, and subsequently it became the stock-market boom and was overheated.

１９２９年、アメリカ発の世界恐慌が起きた。

この恐慌で世界経済は大幅に悪化し、社会と政局の混乱からファシズムが台頭し、第二次世界大戦を勃発させた。

アメリカの金融政策がこの恐慌発生にどのように関わったのかを見ます。

1920代のアメリカは景気が良かった。

第一次世界大戦（１４～１８年）の軍需景気で経済力が育ち、自動車などの消費財ブームが起こる。

後半になると、投機ブームで景気上昇が続く。

投機ブームは土地から始まったが、次いで株式ブームになり、過熱していく。

Why did the speculative boom start?

Agricultural-products export was good in wartime, so land-market boom was active.

People became rich and got to know a charm of securities investment by the war loan that the government published.

The high-income layer went toward the stock investment according to expanded gap between the rich and the poor.

Bank also went toward it according to the change of financial system.

Furthermore, many people easily could speculate in it with the margin transaction (leverage) and investment trust.

なぜ投機ブームが始まったのか？

戦時中の農産品輸出好調で土地投機が活発化していた。

国民は豊になり、政府の発行した戦時公債で証券投資の魅力を知った。

金融の変化で銀行、貧富の差拡大で高額所得層は株式投資に向かった。

さらに投機を容易にする信用取引（レバレッジ）や投資信託が普及した。

＜　1920s, a movie, “Great Gatsby”　＞

On the other hand, real economy was getting worse.

The demand of cars or housing construction took a round, and real economy began to dwindle from the middle of the 1920s.

After the war, the agricultural-products price slumped, the farmhouse was saddled with a large debt by a speculation, and bankruptcies of smaller banks were becoming commonplace.

What added fuel to the fire?

After the war, Western countries return to the gold standard aiming at the stability of a money order and finance.

This harmed themselves. European (especially Britain) fund flowed into the U.S.

In 1927, for international cooperation, Federal Reserve Board increased the amount of money supplied sharply, and slashed interest rates.

This money further overheated a stock market boom in the U.S.

一方、実態経済は悪化しつつあった。

自動車や住宅建設の需要が一巡し、実態経済は20年代半ばから陰り始めた。

戦後、農産品価格は暴落し、農家は投機による多額の負債を抱え、小銀行の倒産は常態化していた。

火に油を注ぐもの

戦後、欧米各国は為替と金融の安定を目指して金本位制に戻る。

これが災いして欧州（特に英国）の資金が米国に流入した。

１９２７年、国際協調の為に連邦準備制度理事会は貨幣供給量を大幅に増やし、金利を下げた。

この資金が米国の株式ブームをさらに過熱させた。

＜　stock prices sudden fall　　＞

Last time came.

In the spring of 1929, FRB suggested the transition to a tight monetary policy from the uneasiness of the economic bubble.

Although the investors still strove, they got out of breath after a half-year, and the stock price took a great dive.

Many banks went into chain-reaction bankruptcies, the Great Depression spread to the world.

Conclusion

We can learn from the depression.

* The money supply growth, and the big difference between rich and poor ignite a speculation. Therefore it causes the large failure in the extremity of an economic bubble.

* If a central bank makes a mistake with a timing of money supply, an economic bubble and a financial crisis will be caused.

* When the government and the central bank make economic activities fully free, it causes a failure.

* The monetary policy is not decided by only the convenience of one country.

最後の時が訪れた。

２９年春、FRBはバブルの不安から金融抑制を示唆した。

それでも投資家は邁進したが、半年後には息切れし、株価は大暴落、銀行は連鎖倒産し、世界恐慌へと広がった。

まとめ

恐慌から学ぶ。

＊       大きな金余りと貧富の差は必ず投機に火を着け、バブルの果てに大破綻を招く。

＊       中央銀行が貨幣供給のタイミングを間違うと、バブルと金融恐慌を招く。

＊       政府や中央銀行は、経済活動を自由放任にすると破綻を招く。

＊       金融政策は一国の都合で決められない。