Something is strange 16: rising share prices

Now, Japan has been seething with rising share prices after a long time.

But I worry a little about it.

It is a bubble economy burst.

A stock plunge occurred in Japan, 1989.

Since then, the economic growth rate of an average of 5% has fallen from 0 to 1 % for 20 years or more.

In further 2007, the Lehman shock happened.

現在、日本は久しぶりの株価高騰に沸いています。

しかし私には気がかりがあります。

それはバブル崩壊です。

１９８９年に株価暴落が起きました。

平均５％の経済成長率は、それを境に２０年以上１～０％まで落ち込みました。

さらに２００７年、リーマンショックが追い打ちをかけました。

＜　a transition of the Nikkei Stock Average　＞

After the bubble economy burst in 1989, an average 150 trillion yen (30% of GDP) value had been disappearing every year, and it continued nine years.

In 1989, the amount of domestic asset evaluation was 457 trillion yen, and the price of GDP was 409 trillion yen.

Is the bubble a fate?  Must we live with it?

The damage is too serious.

There are those who increase assets sharply, but on the other hand, those who reduce occur one after another.

100 trillion yen transfers lightly in the domestic market, and a part of it becomes defaults.

It has happened every about ten years repeatedly.

８９年のバブル崩壊後、株と土地は毎年平均１５０兆円（ＧＤＰの３０％）の価値が消えて行き、9年間も続いた。

８９年の最盛期、国内の資産評価額は４５７兆円、その年のＧＤＰは４０９兆円でした。

（上記数値は「ゼミナール日本経済入門２００５年版」より）

バブルは宿命であり、受け入れざるを得ないのでしょうか？

その損害はあまりにも甚大です。

資産を大幅に増やす人がいる反面、減らす人が続出し、国内で軽く百兆円が移転し、一部は返済不能になる。

概ね１０年毎に繰り返し発生しています。

What is the problem of the bubble?

A huge amount of debt remains, and people must be paying it.

It becomes the fetters of the next development over a long period of time.

Furthermore, in order to fill a gap between the bulging annual expenditure and the massive decrease in annual tax revenue, public investment and issue of bond are performed boundlessly.

As a result, the immense outstanding obligation stacks.

This makes a national finance rigid too.

バブルの何が問題なのか？

巨額負債が残り、国民がそれを負担せざるを得ず、長期にわたり次の発展への足枷となります。

さらに膨れあがった歳出と、大幅な税収減との差を埋める為に、公共投資と公債発行が際限なく行われ、その結果、莫大な債務残高が積み上がります。

これが国の財政をまた身動き出来ないものにします。

＜　revenue, expenditure and amount of government bond issuance in Japan, 1984~

2010 year、red: expenditure, dark blue: revenue, green: bond issuance 　＞

Not only that.

The profits of speculation have been concentrated on the rich class that has a large amount fund more.

This makes additionally the consumption downturn, and speculative money expansion.

And it causes the return of bubble and the economic discrepancy.

From the 1980s, this tidal current has advanced in the world and is increasing more and more.

The statesman and economist who are going to accuse and prevent this are few.

Next time, it is followed.

それだけではありません。

投機の利益は、より巨額資金を持つ富裕階層に集中します。

これは更なる消費の低迷と投機マネーの膨張を促し、バブルの再来と経済格差を招きます。

この潮流は、１９８０年代から世界で進行し、益々増大しています。

これを告発し阻止しようとする為政者や経済学者はほんの一握りです。

次回に続きます。