The election outcome of despair５: very bad political culture３

 

＜　The President, the prime minister of each country　＞

Last time, we looked at the situation where public opinion for nuclear power generation public opinion was not reflected in this election.

This time, we look at rapid declines of government’s approval rating that are one of the causes.

Comparing with overseas, we can check an abnormality of the election in Japan.

前回は原発世論が選挙に反映されない状況を見ました。

今回は、その原因の一つである急激に低下する内閣支持率を見ます。

海外と比較しながら、日本の異常ぶりを確認します。

 

＜　Transition of government’s approval rating in Japan　＞

In Japan, in about half year, the people almost abandoned the Cabinet that they chose. And the Cabinet changed places in about one years.

半年もすれば国民は内閣を見限り、１年で内閣は交代する。

 

＜　Transition of President Obama's approval rating　＞

This chart shows the approval rating of Obama who was inaugurated as the U.S. President in January 2009 during two and a half years.

The Republican Party got a majority of the House of Representatives by the election in November 2010.

As a result, his political management became difficult, and his approval rating declined, but it regained soon.

Although President Obama's approval rating declined, if it is compared with Japan, it is small.

上記グラフは２００９年１月、１期目の大統領に就任したオバマの２年半の支持率を示す。

２０１０年１１月の中間選挙において共和党が下院の過半数を占めたことにより、ねじれが生じ政局運営が困難になり支持率の低下が進んだ。しかし盛り返した。

大統領の支持率は減少したとは言え、日本と比べれば微々たるものです。

 

＜　Transition of U.S. previous presidents’ approval ratings　＞

This chart shows that almost all U.S. previous Presidents have lowered the approval ratings sharply at the end.

For example, although the approval rating of W. bush declined to 30% from 85%, it took  six years and a half.

上記グラフから、米国の歴代大統領さえ最後には大幅に支持率を下げていることがわかる。

例えばW．ブッシュの支持率は８５％から３０％に低下しているが、６年半の長きにわたる結果です。

 

＜　Transition of The British party leader's approval ratings：The value was subtracted the disapproval rating from the approval rating.　＞

The Political power replaced the Conservative Party from the Labor Party in May 2010. And Cameron became the prime minister.

At this time, he united with the leader Clegg of the Liberal Democratic Party.

Miliband are the Labor Party leaders of the opposition party.

The final net satisfaction(approval rating － disapproval rating) of previous cabinets in Japan、Abe’s cabinet was －58%, subsequently －53%,－50%,－61%,and Noda’s it was －48%.

Comparing with it, the British party leader's approval ratings were only 20% after two years.

２０１０年５月に政権が労働党から保守党に代わり、cameronが首相になった。この時、自由民主党の党首cleggと連合を組んだ。milibandは野党の労働党党首です。

日本における歴代内閣の最終の［支持率－不支持率］は、安部首相の－５５％から、－５８、－５３、－５０、－６１、野田首相の－４８％であった。

それに比べて英国では２年後で－２０％に過ぎない。

 

＜　 previous French presidents’ approval ratings：a green line is approval, a red is disapproval. ＞

In this chart, although the Presidents’ approval ratings declined a little during 5 and 8 years, it recovered at last half soon again.

They are passionate about executing their policy according to their ideas until approval ratings decline to 30 and 40 %.

But, in consideration of the next presidential election, they tried to retrieve support by popular policy.

This chart shows the result of them aiming.

この表から、大統領は５～８年の任期中に若干支持率を低下させたものの、やがてまた後半支持率を回復していった。

これは支持率が３０～４０％に落ちるまで自らの理念に従い、政策遂行に執念を燃やすが、次ぎの大統領選に向けて人気取りの施策で挽回を図った結果のようです。

 

＜　South Korean Presidents’ approval rating：盧泰愚＝yellow、金泳三＝red、金大中＝green、盧武鉉＝blue、李明博＝purple　＞

This chart shows transition of the Presidents’ approval ratings during five years in term of office.

At first, although the approval ratings are high, the last declined until about 20%.

Although this is the same as Japan, the period is from 5 to 10 times longer than Japan.

Moreover, Lee Myung-bak(李明博) and Roh Moo Hyun(盧武鉉) became unpopular within one year, but became popular again.

グラフは任期５年間にわたる支持率の推移を示している。

最初は高支持率だが最後は２０％前後に落ち込む。これは日本と同じだが、その期間は日本の５から１０倍長い。

また李明博や盧武鉉のように１年以内に落ち込んでも、後に挽回している。

What is this problem?

The critical issue, since the Cabinet is not stabilized, is too short term to tackle an important policy.

The big cause that has caused it is national public opinion that is easy to heat and cools down easily.

The big one of the causes is national public opinion that is easily warmed up but just as easily cooled down.

As a result, the people accepted the short-lived the Cabinet and are content with scraps of policy.

Such political situation was not in the U.S., Britain, France, and South Korea.

These many are the single-member district system (proportional representation system is included).

Although many top’s term of office are from 4 to 5 years by each countries, they have worked for　longer ministry than it.

This difference may have rested with politicians, bureaucrats, mass media, election system, and society in Japan.

However, the people have to have a sense of crisis for this problem is the first step.

Next time, other political cultures are compared with the world.

  

何が問題か？

一番の問題は内閣が安定しない為に、重要政策に取り組めないことにある。

その大きな一因は、熱しやすく冷めやすい国民世論である。

国民は、結果的に短命内閣を受け入れ、細切れの政策実施に甘んじている。

こんな政治状況は米国、英国、フランス、韓国にはなかった。

これらの多くは小選挙区制（比例代表制含む）であり、国のトップは４～５年任期が多いが、それ以上に長い在任期間を全うしている。

この違いは政治家、官僚、マスコミ、それこそ選挙制度や社会が悪いのもあるだろう。

しかし国民がこのことに危機意識を持つことが第一歩である。

次回は、他の政治文化を世界と比較します。